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Back to Home > Bulletin Board > Current Events > Topic: Turnout tide changes and GOP strategy.

Turnout tide changes and GOP strategy.

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1–25 out of 31 messages

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cdnreprtr	Posted - 11/9/2012 6:51:16 AM \| show profile \| flag this post interesting post-game on the turnout and the GOP strategy based on internal polling and assumptions. From CBS: --- "Adviser: Romney "shellshocked" by loss" As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favourable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night. Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks. Those assessments were wrong." http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/?pageNum=2&tag=page --- TL;DR: some interesting points. - Dem turnout much bigger than GOP predicted, similar to '08. - more "undecided" voted Dem. More important: - GOP turnout much less than past / predicted . Why? GOP (moderates? tea party?) are now self-identifying as "independents." still voting GOP when they do, but are also more likely not to vote at all. Romney pulled 2mil fewer votes than McCain .. conservative voters saying a pox on both your houses.

con	Posted - 11/9/2012 9:05:29 AM \| show profile \| flag this post republican turnout operations was the issue, not demographics.

etaoin shrdlu	Posted - 11/9/2012 9:53:42 AM \| show profile \| flag this post Turnout and demographics... are inseparable, con. You target YOUR voters. You do that community by community based on demographics favorable to your candidate.

cruiser	Posted - 11/9/2012 12:09:52 PM \| show profile \| flag this post You continue to trumpet demographics as if the various voting blocs were monolithic. They are not. Within the Hispanic and black communities are very religious, conservative, family-values-oriented people. The GOP just has to fine tune its outreach...something I will acknowledge they have not done well.

orthicon	Posted - 11/9/2012 12:29:47 PM \| show profile \| flag this post it needs a lot more than "fine tuning".. it needs a rebuild from the ground up.. both parties need to change direction..the democrats need to move to the center, but the republicans need to do it more and faster.. because they have a longer way to go to get to the center.. along the way, the republicans need to throw into the roadside ditch the most strident of the rightwingnutia community.. it's obvious their message wasn't received at ALL by the electorate.. no one is saying the president has an overwhelming mandate..the popular vote was too close to call it overwhelming.. but he does have a mandate to go forward with his program.. and boehner's people would do well to make it clear to the tea party contingent in the house that the game has changed..they can get aboard or go home.. by 2014, it possible the tea party as such may no longer exist..which would be a good thing for everyone.. ESPECIALLY the republican party..

Grateful Deadline	Posted - 11/9/2012 8:13:14 PM \| show profile \| flag this post Orth, if you had any tea party-ers running in your area, check their numbers. Where I am, a little north of you and in solidly Republican territory, tea party Republicans scraped the bottom in this election, walloped by other Republicans.

cruiser	Posted - 11/9/2012 8:50:46 PM \| show profile \| flag this post "the tea party as such may no longer exist" I think you're fogetting...or perhaps never knew...that the modern conservative movement, of which Reagan is the face, suffered through false starts and setbacks prior to Reagan's election. It was spawned in 1951 by William F. Buckley Jr. and stumbled along until Barry Goldwater in 1964. However, Goldwater defeat was a setback and it wasn't until 1980 and Reagan's election that conservatism really took hold. And you may remember that it kicked off the longest peacetime period of economic growth in modern history. It lasted well into Clinton's presidency. Far from dying out, the conservative movement is looking for a charismatic spokesperson to once again bring it to prominence...to articulate its benefits to the nation and all the people. And that person will appear. Perhaps not in what remains of my lifetime but conservatism is alive and well and the people will eventually experience its merits.

cruster	Posted - 11/9/2012 9:24:40 PM \| show profile \| flag this post Take Me Down to Glen Beck's Farm I'm goin' out the country, spreadin' non-hybrid seeds!! Glen says we need to move to farms because America is over. I'm going. This may sound like insanity to everyone in the world but me and my conservative pals here, but we think it makes perfect sense. Between fluoridated water, FEMA concentration camps, black helicopters and socialism, it's time to run like cowards for the hills. We're not sore losers. We're just sore. And we lost.

orthicon	Posted - 11/9/2012 9:31:21 PM \| show profile \| flag this post if cruiztwit could learn to draw the line between.. the honest conservative movement and the tea party hysteria, he might actually be able to understand. i certainly see the difference.. i also see the tea party debacle has set the conservative cause back at least a decade..

orthicon	Posted - 11/9/2012 9:35:44 PM \| show profile \| flag this post grateful..there were a couple of candidates that lost..but.. teh big news is that brian bilbray, a hard-core consservative who is tea party in all but name, is losing in a tight race that 's getting less tight by the hour.. losing to a democrat who was actually one of the architects of the "enron-by=the=sea" mess..and will STILL beat bilbray.. maybe the ad with bilbray's terminal ill daughter wasn't so well received.. or maybe the san diego county demographics have shifted for all time..

mpdodgson	Posted - 11/9/2012 10:36:03 PM \| show profile \| flag this post One thing at a time; cdn/CBS was right; the GOP paid more attention to their own polling thanthey did the national polling (same thing that happened here btw) Second; Rove et al spent more millions on TV ADS than they did on ground support. Bombarding people with commercials is one thing; building a ground base with dedicated people is something else alltogether. Which brings us to "Turnout and demographics...are inseparable, con." whether you like it or not, you have to agree with me that "it's not JUST the economy stupid" When you insult, degrade, and just plain piss on groups--they will will get angry. cruise says "The GOP just has to fine tune its outreach...something I will acknowledge they have not done well." Wow. That's putting it mildly. Saying "Well...we have blacks too!! by pointing at some total numbskull jackasses like West or Cain doesn'nt prove your point. Hey!! We include women!! Look at Batshit Bachmann or Sharon Angle, or I-Aint-a-Witch O'Donnell. Then there's Joe Walsh. Or the "rape candidates" Akin and Melbourne. This isn't "fine tuning"--this is trashing a guitar Townshend style and starting over. I have high hopes that Boehner and Obama will once again reach a "Grand Bargain"--a true mixture of tax cuts--closing loopholes--budget cuts--tax reform--the whole mix-- Now that Boehner recognizes Norquist or the Teabaggers do not control his own party. AND I have high hopes that both sides realize that this is country above party.

mpdodgson	Posted - 11/9/2012 10:59:45 PM \| show profile \| flag this post cruise? you are soooo irrelevant at this point its beyond pathetic. "modern conservative movement...spawned in 1951 by William F. Buckley Jr. and stumbled along until Barry Goldwater in 1964. {YEA THAT WENT WELL} However, Goldwater defeat was a setback and it wasn't until 1980 and Reagan's election that conservatism really took hold. {SO We're skipping by the whole Nixon years, the Ford years...and jumping right to Reagan} ...and he's the guy who approved tax hikes that added to the national, and increased the debt ceiling several times--YEA--HE'S the guy who thought 'trickle down economics would work'--Yea. Right. Great model there Skippy. Here's your other problem, and you don't even realize it's a problem: " the conservative movement is looking for a charismatic spokesperson to once again bring it to prominence...to articulate its benefits to the nation and all the people. And that person will appear. Perhaps not in what remains of my lifetime but conservatism is alive and well' IF--BIG IF--it's such a salvation--if it's such an obvious grand solution to our problems---why the hell are you still searching for a leader? I'm not looking for a Lincoln or an Ike, or even a Reagan--but you guys can't find anyone to step up the plate? Is that our fault--or your partys fault??

Grateful Deadline	Posted - 11/10/2012 1:39:42 PM \| show profile \| flag this post * grateful..there were a couple of candidates that lost..but.. teh big news is that brian bilbray, a hard-core consservative who is tea party in all but name, is losing in a tight race that 's getting less tight by the hour.. * I forgot all about bilbray -- thought that one had been settled but I see that it's probably going to go down to the deadline. It's so incredibly sad that the tea party faction managed to undo the Republican Party.

cruiser	Posted - 11/10/2012 3:05:17 PM \| show profile \| flag this post "SO We're skipping by the whole Nixon years, the Ford years...and jumping right to Reagan" For a smart guy...and a degreed historian (if you can be believed)...you sure are stupid. Neither Nixon nor Ford were conservative. They both could be termed moderates...especially Ford. (Nixon could be called a number of other things as well.) Now with that in mind go back and re-read what I posted. You will see that it was right on.

cruiser	Posted - 11/10/2012 3:11:35 PM \| show profile \| flag this post "It's so incredibly sad that the tea party faction managed to undo the Republican Party" More Republicans who were NOT affiliated with the tea party movement lost than those who were. You're just parroting the disingenuous talking points of your party. The tea party movement is a confirmation of Constitutional values and sound economic policy...nothing more. Individuals may have their own personal agendas but the tenets of the movement as a whole are exactly as I described.

mpdodgson	Posted - 11/10/2012 5:04:37 PM \| show profile \| flag this post Cruise? Don't ask us to "go back and re-read what I posted. You will see that it was right on." There's not enough pot around for all of us. THE TRUTH IS you are soooo irrelevant at this point its beyond pathetic. THE TRUTH IS you skipped from Goldwater to Reagan (because in your world) "Neither Nixon nor Ford were conservative." Well thanks for cleaning up the history books for us, we always thought Tricky Dick was a closet Liberal. Jeez. Point being you skipped through tw ow entire Republican presidenices like they never happened. "More Republicans who were NOT affiliated with the tea party movement lost than those who were" I thought you said NO Republian lost---are you full of shit now, or admiting you wwre wrong?? "The tea party movement is a confirmation of Constitutional values and sound economic policy...nothing more." Yea. Right. Like Deadbeat dad Joe Walsh stood for Constitutional values by insulting a disabled vet. Allen West and his McCarthyism search for commies. Mourdock and Akin and their brand new defintions of rape. I believe Tea Baggers prevented a true American like Boehner from accepting a deal he knew was good for the country. Luckily, Boehner now can deal with the WH without these assholes hanging around him him like Marleys chains. It's about time he--and everyone else in the GOP--realize the voters have spoken. And it's for compromise.

cruiser	Posted - 11/10/2012 5:26:23 PM \| show profile \| flag this post What it's time for is for left wingers to realize that they do not...CANNOT...dictate to conservatives...and Obama is going to have to get over his intransigence. The left's role is to work WITH conservatives to find the best solutions...and if that means Obama has to lose his "soak the rich" policy, so be it. Just because your party NARROWLY won the election doesn't mean it has any sort of mandate. Remember that nearly half the country disagrees with the left wing agenda. And remember that Obama's imperious, arrogant, "I won...I'm the president," was the crowing of an inexperienced and barely competent politician, not an accomplished statesman.

etaoin shrdlu	Posted - 11/10/2012 7:05:10 PM \| show profile \| flag this post But Democrats DID win, the TEA Party went down in flames, the GOP is now aware of a tectonic shift in demographics and electoral votes from their party -- and they are caving on taxes, spending, Obamacare and immigration reform.

orthicon	Posted - 11/10/2012 7:08:03 PM \| show profile \| flag this post the operative word in cruiztwit's latest little diatribe is. "nearly".. hate to tell him this.. but "nearly'"don't get the job done..

Grateful Deadline	Posted - 11/10/2012 10:04:54 PM \| show profile \| flag this post I'm disenchanted with the forum today. I'm fed up past my eyeballs with the disrespect being posted here against the president. It's un-American, rude, uncalled-for and thoroughly sick because it's so irrational and immature coming from allegedly grown men. There's no entertainment value in witnessing verbal abuse, and there's no informational value in reading accusations and toxic statements. Is this all that the forum is going to continue to amount to? I had hoped that after the election, it might see some shred of civility and some other topic besides partisan politics. What's here today is lowbrow trash. Better to go off and do something constructive with an actual, real current event, such as raising hurricane relief.

cruiser	Posted - 11/11/2012 12:37:41 PM \| show profile \| flag this post "disrespect being posted here against the president. It's un-American, rude, uncalled-for and thoroughly sick" Yes, it was all of that. And it lasted for the ENTIRE EIGHT YEARS of the Bush administration.

Grateful Deadline	Posted - 11/11/2012 1:26:48 PM \| show profile \| flag this post Do you have any other BRILLIANT reasons for your conduct?

cruiser	Posted - 11/11/2012 1:48:53 PM \| show profile \| flag this post Once again, changing the subject because I foreclosed where she was going with her ad hominem attacks on conservatives.

Grateful Deadline	Posted - 11/11/2012 9:56:15 PM \| show profile \| flag this post WTF are you talking about? You're an Angry White Man. You can't stand women. You can't stand minorities. I am both. You can't stand me because of it. Too bad, so sad: Deal with it. If you need to lash out every time I post, that's your choice. Everyone here recognizes it for what it is.

cruster	Posted - 11/11/2012 10:12:35 PM \| show profile \| flag this post "Obama is going to have to get over his intransigence" I mean, how many presidential elections can he win?