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Chances of Omnicis/Publicom Merger Now Less Than 50/50

publicis-omicron

If you’re a gambling man, you might want to bet against the pending mega-merger and the double-headed hydra it would create.

Earlier this week, WPP‘s Martin Sorrell gleefully told Reuters–via a little birdie–that chances of the deal going through were less than even. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts at Albert Fried had lowered the official odds to 40% (the previous number was 66%) while downgrading  the theoretical stock price from $70 to $56.

The fact that Publicis recently lost Microsoft, Samsung and Miller Lite didn’t help; the defections have compounded risks created by a clashing of egos over the contested CFO role.

All involved parties still say the deal will go through, primarily because “there’s a $500 million break-up fee at stake”, so we expect to see a few more upbeat press releases in the days ahead.

As principals at both companies sweat a bit more heavily this week than last, WPP may have already begun planning its victory lap.

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