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Topic: Gas shortages price increases this summer
| Author | Message |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 4/18/2007 10:05:32 AM | show profile Gasoline inventories have been declining for about 10 weeks, and are well below where they should be as the summer peak driving season starts to approach. The EIA gives their usual, yeah we'll probably have enough, but why isn't this getting more attention? Do we have to go to places like Renew Wisconsin to find the hard cutting-edge news? |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 4/18/2007 10:08:31 AM | show profile The hard hitting news source.... *** Petroleum and Natural Gas Watch by Michael Vickerman, RENEW Wisconsin April 17, 2007, Vol. 6, Number 6 ?Oh, no, my dear ? I am a very good man I?m just a very bad wizard? --The Wizard of Oz In its latest staged display of bureaucratic omniscience, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week that retail gasoline prices across the nation, which have jumped 25% since January, will peak at $2.87 a gallon next month and then recede before the vacation driving season begins in June. The average price motorists will see this summer will be $2.81, a bit less than what they paid in the previous two summers. EIA?s current forecast comes one month after its previous prediction that gasoline prices would level off this spring at $2.67 a gallon. The agency?s sunny blandishments may cause a few eyebrows to be raised among the millions of West Coast motorists already paying more than $3.00 a gallon at the pump. Then again, maybe not. With a track record for erroneous forecasting that verges on the spectacular, why should anyone bother to listen to EIA when more reliable predictions can be found on the daily astrology page? ...According to EIA?s oracles, hurricanes will not menace the Gulf of Mexico this year, despite the strengthening La Niņa, nor will violence and warfare erupt anew in the Mideast. What about ongoing refinery shutdowns, one might ask? Bad luck, the agency would say. Deteriorating security conditions in Nigeria? A temporary phenomenon. China?s escalating demand for energy? OPEC can handle it. ......But not everyone at EIA is swallowing the agency?s Kool-Aid with the requisite gusto. In a bow to reality, EIA Chief Guy Caruso openly frets over gasoline inventories, which are unusually low considering the proximity of the summer driving season. ?The volume of imports is lower than we thought,? Caruso said to a Dow Jones reporter. What disturbs Caruso is the recent decline in the volume of gasoline imports, coupled with an unexpected series of refinery shutdowns both home and abroad. Refiners are struggling to keep up with accelerated demand at the same time the world?s petroleum supply is gradually becoming heavier and more laden with impurities like sulfur. Some U.S. refineries cannot process lower-grade crude at all, which leaves the country increasingly dependent on gasoline imports. Moreover, EIA estimates that U.S. gasoline demand is 2% to 3% percent higher than it was a year ago, and shows no sign of tailing off. With that, the illogic of EIA?s outlook becomes transparent. How can inventories rise when demand is running higher than available supply? Why would gasoline prices drop under those circumstances?... EIA?s monthly and annual predictions have only one purpose: to prevent the mainstream media from alerting the driving public to the fragility of the domestic energy picture. ... In the absence of a full-blown crisis, the humbugs behind the curtain will continue to use the power of illusion to stop us from learning the truth about the energy squeeze that?s upon us. |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 4/22/2007 9:56:29 PM | show profile It's $3.16 for regular at my local gas station. And this before summer driving or hurricane season kicks in. |
| Metro Writer | Posted – 4/23/2007 3:12:15 PM | show profile Every time I have to fill up the car, I CURSE George Bush and Dick Cheney. Why are Americans so Puritanical that lying about an idiotic unconsummated relationship with a woman is deemed worthy of impeachment but corruption isn't? |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 4/23/2007 9:19:23 PM | show profile Metro, much as I despise the Bush and the loyal Bushies, these problems began WAY before Bushco took office. It's all about oil (and natural gas and coal for that matter) being finite resources and the cheap and easy-to-find oil is gone. Despite higher prices we're producing less and less oil each year (since 1970!) and believe me when I say that ANWR would be a drop in the bucket. So when the economists say that the market will take care of everything, keep in mind that the usual laws of the market don't apply to finite natural resources that are unique in their property of being very abundant and having very high energy intensities. And also unique in that we don't have a clear idea of how much is out there, and the infrastructure needed to come up with alternatives takes decades to build. Remember, these carbons took hundreds of millions of years to develop. We can't substitute them easily, quickly, and mostly, we can't do it cheaply. That said, Bushco's policies have been focused toward looking out for big oil/gas interests and not what's best for our long-term security and prosperity. The problem we are so dependent on gasoline and we seem to be able to adapt fairly easily (other than in the pocketbook) to higher prices. I remember so clearly two years ago I went to a remote vacation spot that has notoriously expensive gas (at least 50 cents a gallon more than other places) and I was shocked to see gas selling for $2.75 there. What a shocker. Gas today at my local station, $3.18 (up 2 cents from a couple of days ago). Do I hear $3.75 by the next big Gulf Hurricane? And after some months at that we won't blink at that either. This is why it's a problem. |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 4/23/2007 10:38:24 PM | show profile Oh those rosy forecasts.... And on the topic of lousy government forecasts... In 1999 the government energy forecasters (EIA) predicted that in 2007 oil would be selling for about $21 a barrel slowly increasing to about $24 a barrel in the year 2020. In 2004 they predicted by 2007 oil prices would be about $25 a barrel going to about $28/barrel by 2025. In 2005 they predicted oil prices in 2007 would be $30 to $40 a barrel, increasing to $32 to $50 a barrel by 2025. Last week they said by 2030 oil prices would be anywhere from $40 to $100 a barrel. They've got a well-established track record, and it ain't good. The price of oil now is about three times what they thought it would be less than ten years ago. There are fundamental changes in the market and it has to do with supply. |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/2/2007 10:48:54 AM | show profile Gasoline inventories continue falling... prices rising.... will the demand destruction be enough to prevent shortages? Stay turned, hurricane season around the corner... |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/2/2007 11:15:42 PM | show profile Talking to myself again... I know. With the low gasoline stock, all we hear about in the news is that there's been a lot of unplanned maintenance at refineries (thus the shortage). Here are a few questions I'm waiting for some intelligent journalist in the MSM to ask: -How do refinery shutdowns/maintenance this year compare to previous years? -What percentage of refineries can only handle light sweet crude? -What percentage of refinery upgrades are helping refineries to process heavier, sour crudes? -What's the breakdown of oil imports in terms of light sweet crude versus other grades (heavy, sour, etc.) and how does this compare to previous years? -How much gasoline do you get from a barrel of light sweet crude compared to heavy sour crude? -Is the world producing more light sweet crude today than it was a year (or two, three, or four) ago? -Is Saudi Arabia recently saying it may not increase its oil production capacity because it truly believes demand will be reduced, or because they have production limitations? In other words, they've reached peak production (as we did in 1970) and now can't substantially increase production? -How does the energy intensity of corn ethanol compare to gasoline? To biodiesel? |
| junecleaver | Posted – 5/7/2007 3:00:48 PM | show profile Gas Prices Has anyone heard about boycotting the pumps on the 15th (of May)? I got a chain e-mail about it. |
| Mag Girl | Posted – 5/7/2007 4:48:42 PM | show profile Those boycotting schemes don't manage to do anything but let your tank run dry. It doesn't reduce demand in any way at all, and there would actually be a spike in demand after the day is over with if everyone in the nation complied, which they won't. We'd all be better served by reducing our demand overall and premanently, and not just for one day. |
| junecleaver | Posted – 5/8/2007 1:23:32 PM | show profile I couldn't agree more! |
| DHernandez | Posted – 5/8/2007 4:44:32 PM | show profile Actually, the last gasoline boycott managed to bring down prices in California by about 30 cents a gallon. I feel kind of bad about this boycott, because I rarely buy gasoline on Tuesdays anyway so it won't be a true boycott for me. Regular unleaded in my neighborhood was $3.73 a gallon yesterday. Because of gasoline zoning, it's higher and lower elsewhere in Southern California. Unfortunately, the various bus lines don't connect, and train service is limited. If I want to go 40 miles, I have to start out now to make it by this time tomorrow. Skateboarding would be faster. Also sweatier. |
| Mag Girl | Posted – 5/8/2007 4:58:38 PM | show profile belinda, when was this boycott you speak of? Read this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18492185/ |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/10/2007 9:19:06 AM | show profile Totally unsustainable If you want to go 15 miles, it doesn't really take all that much energy if you walk or ride your bicycle. Try pushing your car that 15 miles. It's all about conservation, driving the smallest most fuel efficient cars possible. So the Senate has put through a plan to increase average fuel economy to 35 mph by 2020. A good step but not good enough. |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/10/2007 9:19:50 AM | show profile ... and of course NOT driving whenever possible and choosing to instead walk, bike, take the bus, train, etc. |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/10/2007 11:17:31 AM | show profile How vulnerable are we? Just-in-time delivery. We should see some of the drawbacks of our increasing reliance on just-in-time delivery for everything. *** Crude Oil Rises on Signs U.S. Gasoline Supply Is Insufficient By Mark Shenk May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and gasoline rose on concern that U.S. motor-fuel inventories aren't sufficient to meet demand during the summer driving season. Gasoline supplies in the week ended May 4 were down 8 percent from the five-year average for the date, the Energy Department said yesterday. Inventories of the fuel rose 372,000 barrels, the first gain in 13 weeks. Eni SpA cut output at Nigeria's Brass crude oil export terminal by 98,000 barrels a day after a militant group attacked pipelines this week. ``It's only a few weeks before driving season and gasoline supplies are more than 15 million barrels below normal,'' said Phil Flynn, a commodities trader for Chicago-based Alaron Trading. ``A gain of under 400,000 barrels isn't a lot.'' ...``It looks like gasoline demand will be pretty strong,'' said Peter Meyer, a commodity trader for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``Seeing $3 at the pump is no longer enough to curtail demand. We now have to see $4 before people change their behavior.'' Bloomberg |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/11/2007 10:09:58 PM | show profile Not-Quite-Just-in-time delivery Wow, and summer hasn't even started yet. ** Running On Empty Sioux Falls is running low on gasoline. The two major suppliers in town, Magellan and New Star are both out of unleaded gas and don't expect to get any until sometime next week. They ran dry Tuesday, the same time we saw a 16 cent spike in gas prices. ... "It's just not good right now it's always going to boil down to supply and demand and right now we're using about two and a half percent more than this same time last year," said Mark Madeja of Triple A. *** http://www.keloland.com/News/NewsDetail6371.cfm?Id=0,56946 |
| UGoGirl | Posted – 5/17/2007 9:51:20 AM | show profile It's a cruel... cruel summer... OK I'm dating myself. *** The peak oil crisis: Alarms are sounding by Tom Whipple Across the world alarm bells are starting to clang. Above every gas station, a large sign is proclaiming that prices are on an unstoppable climb towards un-affordability. In Paris, the International Energy Agency has announced that the demand for oil is likely to exceed the supply later this year, unless, of course, OPEC steps up production. In the Middle East OPEC spokesmen reiterate time after time that all is well, there is plenty of oil, and there is no need to increase production. In Ottawa, a parliamentary hearing on energy security broke up in turmoil last week when a distinguished professor pointed out that, unless Canada stopped selling 60 percent of its oil to the US, Canadians would soon be ?freezing in the dark.? In Nigeria, Chevron is evacuating hundreds of employees to forestall the possibility that they too will be hauled off to the swamps as hostages in an increasingly bitter insurgency. The Chinese just announced that their April oil imports were 23 percent higher than last April?s. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela -- everywhere you look ? there are unmistakable warnings of troubles to come. These, however, are issues for later. Right now, on the top of every American?s agenda should be the question of whether we are going to get through the summer without shortages and gas lines? opinions are mixed. First, all seem to agree that gasoline prices, which set new highs last week, will continue to rise. Even the Director of the Energy Information Agency, whose job it is to put a rosy spin on adverse developments, told a Senate Committee earlier this week that retail prices will go higher heading into the vacation season because not all of the recent rise in wholesale costs has been reflected in what consumers pay at the pump. So far high prices, which are approaching $4 a gallon in some places on the West Coast, seem to have done little to dampen demand although they may be cutting into WalMart sales. Since significant cuts in US gasoline consumption don?t seem to be in the cards, at current price levels, then we are back to refinery output, gasoline imports, and our stockpiles to see us through. Two years ago, before the hurricanes put so much stress on US refineries, they were being operated at 95 percent of capacity. We got through last summer by importing 1.5 million barrels of gasoline a day during May from foreign refineries. According to a senior EIA oil analyst, 800,000 barrels a day of US refining capacity is still shutdown. This translates into about 400,000 barrels of lost gasoline production each day or nearly 3 million barrels a week. Last week the situation eased a bit. Although US refineries are still operating below 90 percent of capacity and processed only a trivial 30,000 barrels a day more of crude than in the previous week, our refiners managed to squeeze our more gasoline, so that production increased by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.1 million. The ?good? news, however, is that gasoline imports jumped to 1.5 million which resulted in the first significant (1.7 million barrel) increase in our stockpiles in many weeks. However, 1.2 million of the 1.7 million barrel increase was on the isolated West Coast. The increase in gasoline stocks east of the Rockies was only 500,000 barrels last week ? way lower than necessary to forestall problems later this summer. The questions now become: Will this increased supply, which is based on imports of foreign gasoline be sustained over the summer; and are the stockpiles already so low that they will not be sufficient to meet the increased demands of the summer driving season which starts in about two weeks? Last year the demand for gasoline jumped from 9.1 million barrels a day in the spring to 9.6 million during the summer months. Unless very high prices start reducing demand for gasoline we will be looking at new highs this summer. ...Where does all this leave us? The short answer is, in an increasingly grim situation. When respected analysts say our gasoline situation is beyond the tipping point and that at least some of us are likely to be sitting in gas lines before Labor Day, we should heed the warning. Looking at the broader, worldwide picture, the situation is equally grim. When the normally staid International Energy Agency starts issuing a stream of dire warnings about shortages or much higher prices before the year is out, we should start thinking about a markedly different future. |
