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Topic: Recession
| Author | Message |
| Cyrus | Posted – 3/7/2008 8:08:29 PM | show profile are we or not Since a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of GDP growth, by the time one is declared, there's no debate. There is major pain being felt across financial services, housing and other sectors in terms of earnings and revenue. Right there, that goes a long way toward lowering the value of the goods and services produced by the U.S, which is what GDP is. Just the write downs of asset values that have occurred also go a long way toward meeting that definition. All I was saying is that, by the time it's all said and done, I'm fairly confident the NBER will date the current period as recessionary. Remember that although the 2001 recession was noticeable after 9/11, it was officially dated to have begun in March. That said, many didn't feel the pain until much later. ------ Cyrus Afzali Astoria Communications www.astoriacomm.com |
| chucho | Posted – 3/8/2008 9:35:41 AM | show profile Indeed, and actually it was felt by a lot of people before March. There was a slew of layoffs in December before that. I remember that we were well into a recession in pragmatic terms beginning after the holidays in early 2001. There's really no relationship between when politicians and economists say we're in a recession and when the rest of us feel it. It's in their interest to make recessions as small as possible in their rhetoric and statistics. And we had a "jobless recovery" because the recession ended because people with stock portfolios began reaping profit again but small businesses were scraping by. They never really fully recovered, either, and now they're being hit again. But it's only when people with big stock portfolios start seeing their assets shrink that people start talking about recession. Months before people I know start complaining about their capital gains I know other people who were laid off from their jobs. |
| mkelly | Posted – 3/8/2008 10:22:53 AM | show profile Let me clarify a few things... This debate has gone on long enough, and clearly I need to step in and clarify a few things.... Q. Are we in a recession? A. Who cares? Seriously-- how is the larger economic situation of the world relevant to me personally? I only want to know whether I am in recession. At any given moment, millions of individual businesses and people are experiencing two quarters of negative growth, and millions of others are growing. If you keep your wits about you, have the right attitude, and work hard, you can just about always make ends meet. Q. Who is hiring? A. As Foodlit accurately noted, lots of people are hiring. Many of them are laying off workers too. If you cannot understand that a large financial services company is sending its mortgage originators packing and at the same time, looking for more people to help write copy for ever-more sophisticated websites, you're not seeing the big picture. Recessions always lead to an increase in new businesses. New businesses these days need websites and marketing materials, and someone has to write them. Q. How come I can't find work? A. Well, ask whether you're really looking in the right places, in the right ways. I always chuckle when I meet some 20-something who complains that he or she can't find work as a writer. I ask: What are you trying to do? 'Oh, politics, or culture, or arts and entertainment.' The correct answer is always: 'Whatever someone will pay me to write.' You are supposed to be a professional writer, which means you take whatever assignment pays the bills. You are a day laborer at the keyboard. If writing about the arts is so important to you, start your own arts magazine and write for that. You'll quickly see how important it is to follow the market, and get a newfound appreciation for writing corporate gigs for marketing brochures and the like. Understand what happens in a recession. Companies cut full-time jobs, and the market floods with independent contractors-- in our case, freelance writers. But very few people know how to be good freelancers, largely because journalism schools are so out to lunch in their curricula. Editors still looking to spend a freelance budget are stuck swimming through oceans of freelance resumes, looking for the really good, skilled fit for their publications. I'm doing that now, and believe me, it's very hard to do. Recessions are excellent times for GOOD freelancers to prove themselves, since they're competing against so many BAD freelancers who leave editors reaching for the Prozac. And by definition, a good freelancer is one who can see what businesses are still doing well in today's economic climate, figure out what those businesses will need for help in the next six to 12 months, and start offering that sort of work. Folks, if there were ever a rule for career success, it's this: Ask yourself what your clients want from you now; ask yourself what they'll probably want you to do in six to 12 months; and ask yourself what they'll absolutely insist you're able to do in 24 months. Then learn how to do the last two. |
| snappiness | Posted – 3/9/2008 11:44:37 AM | show profile | email poster hot sectors? Fascinating thread. I'm not hurting for freelance work (business writing, print) at the moment, but I have seen my word counts drop and also realize I need to diversify my client base. Someone mentioned focusing on growth areas -- just curious what the growth areas are for mainstream mags right now -- shelter, parenting, adventure?? You tell me. I would say business, as my main client is profitable right now. |
| caitlinkelly | Posted – 3/9/2008 1:12:23 PM | show profile "very few people know how to be good freelancers, largely because journalism schools are so out to lunch in their curricula. Editors still looking to spend a freelance budget are stuck swimming through oceans of freelance resumes, looking for the really good, skilled fit for their publications. I'm doing that now, and believe me, it's very hard to do." mkelly, how hard can it be to find decent freelance writers when this site alone has 100s advertising on Freelance Marketplace and ASJA (yes, I'm on their board so biased) has a record 1,320 members right now, each of them vetted for national clips? Why blame journalism schools when so many out of work journos-turned-freelancers are essentially learning on the fly? Most FT journos seem like snails without a shell when they suddenly have to freelance every penny of their income -- while those of us who have done it for years seem to have figured it out. Maybe your applicant pool is too large or insufficiently screened? |
