In case you haven't already seen it, MobyLives' current column features some controversial thoughts on first fiction by Robert Lasner, co-publisher of Ig Publishing:

Finally, big publishers can help literary first fiction by not paying for it. Huge advances to first novelists creates the "one and done" phenomena, where an author is dropped by a big house when their book doesn't earn out its ridiculously high advance. One of the worst things about the swallowing of big publishing by international media conglomerates is that big houses have completely lost the concept of building an author's career. They just go for the big hit--or, in most cases, miss. I am willing to bet that the bottom line of many publishers would be improved if they stopped throwing money away on advances that will never be earned back, and instead tried to nurture author's careers. It would make for happier authors, and, in the long-term, happier publishers.

In other words, the paragraph's first sentence -- "Finally, big publishers can help literary first fiction by not paying for it." -- is as exagerrated as first-timers' advances. "Not paying as much for it" is, I think, what Lasner means.

On the other hand, though, don't big advances create buzz? And can the industry be anything but hit-driven? Those with a better perspective on book finances, write GalleyCat at galleycatATmediabistroDOTcom.