This morning, as I struggled to get going after a long holiday weekend, I was struck by the number of recent articles out there and pundits quoted that offer conflicting opinions about the current state of mobile advertising and what 2009 will bring. Is mobile still test or line item in budgets? Will 2009 see an increase in spend or a contraction? Examples include a very thoughtful and exhaustive piece by Matthaus Krzykowski in VentureBeat, and a piece that appeared in The Economist; these more upbeat views contrasted with a guarded piece that appeared today on ADWEEK.com.

From experience, I know the difficulty in trying to get the clear picture of what is happening in this nascent, fragmented mobile marketing/advertising environment. This I learned first hand when I sized the U.S. Mobile Web Display market in a report I wrote last year. One of the real fundamental questions as I see it is: how will shrinking ad budgets impact overall mobile advertising/marketing spend? Will overall ad spending contract at a greater rate than growth in mobile ad spend (both from current spenders and new advertisers coming to mobile)? I raised this in my blog post "AdAge Media Mavens Lunch Talk Turns to Economy and Opportunities for Innovation, Reinvention." Then, there is the question as to when will we see and know more about the trend? I for one agree with Jason Spero of Admob (see my blog post "Mobile Marketing's Restrained Optimism") when he said that "...we won't see the full impact until next year."

Seems like whenever I blink there is another company entering the ever more crowded mobile marketing and advertising enablement and services space. Now this is not to say that these companies have the same roots (mobile specialist or online roots) are focused on solving the same problems on the same platforms in the same markets. So, it is very likely that there is room for some of these companies to bring something new to the table and grab some of the limited, but growing mobile marketing dollars. However, it just seems that there is a lot of noise out there. I have to be frank, I don't know many of these companies and some of them most definitely deserve a look. Among those that are new to me and that I am watching include VideoEgg, which has roots in the interactive online space and recently extended its Ad Frames, performance-based video solution to mobile, and specifically the iPhone.

Seems like Nokia has plans to launch (early next year) a luxury-branded, MVNO service, leveraging its high-end Vertu handset in partnership with Japan's leading mobile operator NTT DoCoMo. Nokia has limited marketshare in the Japanese market. This combined with its goal of transforming itself from a hardware to a services company may make sense in theory.

Really though, in this economy is the timing right? Then there is a question as to the real benefit to Nokia and the Nokia brand by targeting such high-end, affluent Japanese consumers with a branded handset - Vertu - that is distanced/removed from its core Nokia brand. And, we all remember the U.S. MVNO marketplace implosion, don't we? The word MVNO went from being all the rage to being the kiss of death. The carnage bears such high-profile brands and highly-anticipated launches from the likes of Mobile ESPN, Disney Mobile, Amp'd Mobile, and others. The U.S. MVNO market failures, while not necessarily the bell weather for what might work in other markets or regions in the world, it does highlight how difficult it is for even high-profile brands to build and execute in a highly competitive, mature mobile services business.

SinglePoint, the company behind hundreds of mobile-driven interactive TV campaigns, has snagged a spot on Deloitte's 2008 Technology Fast 500 list. The ranking is based on revenue growth from 2003-07. Falling in at number 376, SinglePoint grew 361% over the past five years.

The Seattle-based firm also holds 20th place on the Washington Technology Fast 50, a ranking of the fastest-growing tech outfits in Washington State.

Rich Begert, SinglePoint's CEO, said the company's growth is a result of more consumers wanting to receive text alerts on topics they find interesting as well as increased advertiser adoption of mobile campaigns to build customer loyalty.

According to Begert, SinglePoint's technology delivers millions of text messages for interactive TV shows and standalone text message alert campaigns through partnerships with all US mobile operators. And with its new SingleBrand advertising system, companies can insert "targeted advertising into these millions of text messages for more revenue-generating opportunities," he said.

(Image credit: Jupiterimages Unlimited)

Today TNS and Compete announced Smartphone Intelligence, a new survey product/service. Methodology includes consumer insights (surveys) and behavioral data (online clickstream). This does not appear to include a mobile agent on the device itself.

Highlights from the survey include some compelling data regarding iPhone users' greater proclivity (and relative to other smartphone users) to engage in mobile advertising, financial transactions, GPS and application downloads. The statistics are not surprising as the iPhone environment marries flat rate data plans, a good UI, application distribution and improved browsing. What will be interesting to see is how the other smartphone vendors stack up by carrier relative to the iPhone (which we know is only available on the AT&T network).

When I was attending the CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment event in Los Angeles a couple of years ago, I was in a taxi with a bunch of wireless carrier executives. To protect the innocent, the wireless carrier shall remain nameless. Somehow I was not properly introduced to the folks in the taxi and they mistakenly thought that I worked for them or was part of their PR machine. At the time, I was in an analyst role and they started talking openly about bad momentum and how once it starts it is hard to turn it around. Once they found out that I was an analyst, they did everything in their power on the taxi ride (over to a dinner they were hosting for our analyst firm) to make me try to forget what I had mistakenly heard and shift the discussion in a more positive and productive direction. Didn't work.

My taxi ride and discussions around bad momentum made me think about the recent Motricity news, as reported by Tricia Duryee in MocoNews. Bad momentum.

iPhone users will soon be able to download a free Google app that lets them get answers to any number of questions, and not necessarily search-related. As reported by John Markoff in the New York Times, after asking a question, the service will return results, including location information to the user.

Now, I've always wondered why I would use voice input technologies to search for stuff on my phone, when I am so used to using my QWERTY keyboard on my BlackBerry. But then again, voice definitely has a place in my mobile world. When I am driving. When I am walking. Although when I am walking I can usually text and browse, but it does create potential tripping hazards. And, for those who don't have a good input method for searches, it could be a nice way to interact with their device and find content.

Microsoft and Yahoo have already introduced voice-enabled search. Ultimately the utility of the Google app will be in its ability to deliver accurate and differentiated results. We all know that voice recognition technologies have improved, but mobile environments can always offer some challenges.

Although Qualcomm is pulling back on some its investments in order to cut costs, as reported by Sinead Carew at Reuters, the company is moving forward with both domestic and international expansion plans for its mobile TV MediaFLO services.

Matt Kapko at MocoNews hit upon the highlights from MediaFLO USA's pitch at the Mobile Marketing Forum in San Diego.

What perplexes me at this stage is how much will consumers be willing to pay (and again) for cable-like, pre-packaged live linear TV on their mobile phones. No doubt that there is demand for some live content, but the mobile experience warrants something personalized and snackable.

A recent study by Forrester put mobile TV adoption at just 1%, which makes it not all that interesting to advertisers, despite the potential promises around targeting (including location), interactivity (for VOD, clipcasting), etc. There is also a question as to what is the right ad unit (certainly not 30-second commercials) to properly engage mobile consumers in their video and TV experience and be effective.

If we look at the early stage market activity in mobile web display advertising, it has been largely driven by those companies with the most to gain - mobile content companies looking to hawk their mobile content (ringtones, games, wallpapers, etc.) to consumers that are already out there and engaged in the mobile Web. It has been a virtuous cycle. Mobile content companies are spending a significant amount money to advertise directly to consumers in order to drive and maintain sales. And now as the economy slows, consumer demand for discretionary mobile personalization and entertainment products/services will weaken.

As reported by Silicon Alley Insider, leading mobile entertainment company Thumbplay is one such company that is cutting costs. If there is a limited consumer appetite for paid mobile content, companies like Thumbplay are going to have to re-think their customer acquisition strategies/cost structures and tweak business models associated with their mobile content offerings.

There are so many issues in mobile content and marketing/advertising that I continue to be fascinated by. Just a few questions that I'm pondering right now:

1) What will consumer demand for mobile content look like (i.e., what apps do consumers really want and need now) and how will the economic slowdown impact both demand and the business model mix (i.e., paid, free, partial or full ad subsidies/support)?
2) How will the economic slowdown impact mobile marketing and advertising budgets, as well as who is spending, how and where they are spending, and ultimately their objectives in mobile?
3) When will meaningful mobile search services be a reality and what will they look like? How important will location elements be in the mobile search experience?
4) How will the changing mobile content distribution/merchandising landscape (on-versus off-deck) impact wireless carriers? How can they continue to monetize beyond connectivity/pipe revenues?
5) How will analytics, reporting and targeting capabilities in mobile advertising evolve? Which companies can deliver on these things to maximize mobile advertising revenue potential?
6) Can the market sustain so many companies that rely on mobile marketing/advertising when there are not enough dollars to go around? Who will survive? Who won't? Who will partner? Who will be acquired?

Look to future posts where I hope to illuminate a bit more on these and other questions. Once again, look forward to continuing the dialogue with all of you along the way.

Linda