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Hurt Locker Will Nab the Oscar, According to Twitter Analysis

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Much has been made in the past about predicting the Academy Award winners based on ad spend in Variety and the Hollywood Reporter and other lobbying efforts.

What constitutes “other?” Well, The Hurt Locker producer Nicholas Chartier‘s attempt to get members to vote for his film over the megablockbuster Avatar via email, for one. Chartier was caught and banned from the celebration this Sunday for “casting a negative or derogatory light on a competing film”.

According to Waggener Edstrom’s (WE) analysis of Twitter using its proprietary twendz pro service, the blunder won’t matter. The Locker is going to put the hurt on the competitors, regardless of the gaffe. WE didn’t only look at thumbs-up-thumbs-down Tweets from the masses, but the people doing the influencing within the Academy community.

twendz ID’d critic Roger Ebert as a top influencer. According to his Tweet this week, “Although the rule-breaking producer of The Hurt Locker will lose Oscar tickets, his goof won’t affect the outcome.”

WE also found some interesting things in their research:

Many of the supporting tweets for Avatar as best picture referenced its budget and sales.

The average number of followers for an Avatar Twitter voter was over 110.

Those supporting Hurt Locker focused on its plot, characters and director Kathy Bigelow‘s directing capabilities.

The average number of followers for a Hurt Locker Twitter voter was over 220.

You can view the twendz Oscar analysis in action here.

RELATED: WagEd Launches Premium Twitter Tool

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