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Monday Aug 14, 2006

The Fall Blockbuster Horserace

Normally, GalleyCat isn't a place for us to review books, but Motoko Rich's piece in the NYT this weekend on how some publishers have high, high, high hopes for their big fall books to score big invites some editorializing and prognosticating. So to wit:

Gordon Dahlquist, THE GLASS BOOKS OF THE DREAM EATERS (Bantam, out now)
Advance: "major deal" (New York post said 2 million, but that's NYP dollars)
Marketing campaign: N/A, but a lot
print run: N/A, but also a lot
Verdict: Failed 50 page test for me. Debuted on NYT list at #16 - just barely scraping through.

Jed Rubenfeld, THE INTERPRETATION OF MURDER (Holt, September 5)
Advance: $800,000 (North American; foreign rights sold in 28 other countries)
Marketing Campaign: approx. $500,000
Print Run: Approx. 185,000 (emphasis on approx.)
Verdict: Worth the hype. Some first novel flaws and the author is perhaps too enamored of academic-style writing but it's erudite and fact-filled enough to do well on the lists - but probably won't top them.

Michael Cox, THE MEANING OF NIGHT (Norton, September)
Advance: "just under $1 million" in the UK; a "significant deal" in the US
Marketing campaign: N/A, but NYT says "hundreds of thousands of dollars"
print run: Has to be over 100,000 copies
Verdict: Worth the hype and then some. Actually, the book is quite brilliant. Likely that will translate more into award recognition more than sales.

Diane Setterfield, THE THIRTEENTH TALE (Atria, September 12)
Advance: $1 million or so, US at auction; 800,000 pounds to Orion in the UK
Marketing campaign: definitely in the "hundreds of thousands of dollars" range
Print run: N/A
Verdict: Worth the hype, combining page turning sensibilities with a distinctly gothic feel. Has accessible, retro feel that will win over a decidedly female-centric audience.

Forecasted winner, quality: THE MEANING OF NIGHT
Forecasted winner, sales: THE THIRTEENTH TALE

But as Rich says, handicapping the race is difficult. "In the end you can throw as much hype and as much hope as you want," said Irwyn Applebaum, president and publisher of Bantam Dell. "But it's still about when the reader sits down with that book and says, 'Wow, I've got to keep turning the pages.'"




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